#019 The September Issue (pt.1)

5 predictions on how the future of fashion will form in the next 12 months

In the 2009 hit The September Issue, without the faintest hint of a smirk, Anna Wintour declares: ‘Fashion is not about looking back. It’s always about looking forward.’

In spite of their shared resentment towards technology, it’s with this gospel in mind that industry insiders flock to purchase their September Issues from the likes of Vogue, Elle and Vanity Fair. A prophetic manual, often spanning 700 pages, the issues detail how fashion will be shaped over the next 12 months, asking which behaviours, innovations, and trends will shift the industry.

As various September Issues hit the stands, I explored these same questions myself, drawing on developer conferences, market data and my own convictions, to predict how fashion will change over the next 12 months.

I hope you enjoy.

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5 predictions for digital fashion’s immediate future:

1. Trends will be not just be digitally driven, but digitally contrived
   
   ’Outfits inspired by runway’ boasts 25+ million posts on TikTok at time of writing. However, as Business of Fashion details, it’s now just as common to see TikTok trends informing fads that flare up and recede before they even reach the catwalk, as it is to see runway looks informing styles seen on social media.

   

   Snapshot from Business of Fashion’s Timeline of a Viral Trend

   The past 18 months have seen micro-trends trickle up from TikTok to catwalk en-masse. With Charli XCX’s brat inspiring slews of slime green pieces, #MobWife glorifying heavy fur, and most recently Jools Lebron’s ‘very mindful, very demure’ driving the world to favour fits that show ‘only a little chichi, not our cho cho!’
   
   Whilst most trends already bear some whiff of corporate allegiance (brat was created to sell an album and Mob Wife to drive viewership towards HBO’s re-run of The Sopranos) micro-trends have traditionally begun with creators who build a bandwagon for brands to hop onto.
   
   I predict that the next 12 months will a see a shift from a trend cycle that is organically creator-powered, to one that is predicted and produced for commercial gain.
   
   

   David Chapman
   ’s
   Meaningness
   piece Geeks, Mops and Sociopaths first led me to conceive of this reality in 2022. Chapman argues that a trend begins with a small group of creators and fanatics— its ‘Geeks’—drawn to a ‘new thing’ because of their interests and values. The excitement of these Geeks then attracts ‘MOPs’ (members of the public) who don’t care so much about the ‘new thing’ integrally, but are drawn to its shininess in such droves that the ‘scene' around the ‘new thing’ becomes a subculture. Once this subculture is seeded—and MOP money is pouring in—the ‘new thing’ goes on to attract ‘Sociopaths’—individuals who are so adept at impersonating those with genuine interest in the ‘new thing’, that they can exploit it. In Chapman’s words these Sociopaths ‘Dress just like the creators—only better. Talk just like the creators—only smoother. They may even do some creating—competently, if not creatively.’
   
   The Geek, MOP, Sociopath relationship is a tale as old as time. But where Sociopaths were previously opportunists who relied on creators to seed a ‘scene’ they then co-opted, I see an imminent future where these Sociopaths (both individuals and corporations) use technology to create the ‘scenes’ themselves—cutting OG creators out entirely.
   
   AI in particular will supercharge this move, with its ability to process swathes of data, spit out predictions, and now independently create. One generative AI startup Pre caught my eye as a foundation of this future, by offering a tool which can predict the success of a social media post with 80% accuracy. It’s no big leap to imagine a Sociopath running Pre’s process, then using the outputs to direct MidJourney to generate content their audience would enjoy. Or, to go one step further and automate the prediction-generation-iteration process altogether.
   
   Chapman’s Geek, MOP, Sociopath saga ends with a subculture’s cool being ’all used up’, as Sociopaths bleed the ‘new thing’ dry of its cash and cultural capital before moving onto the next. We’re already seeing shoots of this in our current trend cycle, where over the past 4 months brat summer has evolved from the emblem of club kids, to that of supermarket chains, politicians and most cringe-worthily, NATO. So over the next 12 months we should be sure to remain vigilant of culture’s commercial contrivance, before the cool in internet culture is all used up.
   

   
   

2. Fashion will use virtual worlds to become more demand responsive
   
   As the Business of Fashion team so astutely assert in their most recent report on the state of fashion: ‘by the end of 2024, self-regulation of sustainability may no longer be an option’.

   

   Images of the physical and digital beanies from the Roblox x Forever 21 drop

   Numerous mandates banning the destruction of goods and the dumping of waste will be put into effect over the next 12 months. These come alongside plans to make companies disclose information about volumes of unsold and discarded inventory, and restrictions that enforce circularity at the product level.
   
   The result is that overproduction is rapidly becoming costly and shameful if not illegal. Thus it has finally become imperative for brand leaders to consider the ways they can adhere to the economic best practices, they’ve been ignoring for decades, and produce at the point where supply meets demand.
   
   I predict that virtual worlds will play a large part in this transition to a more demand-responsive fashion industry.
   
   Gen-Z spend 25% of their leisure time playing video games, compared to 18% on social media. And according to NewZoo now more Millennials than ever are mirroring these behaviours, spending 21% of their time in virtual spaces.
   
   At last week’s Roblox Developer Conference (RDC), Roblox founder and CEO David Baszucki, referenced this reality, boasting that the game had seen 16 billion hours of engagement in the past 12 months from over 380 million monthly active users. Integral to note is that many players use Roblox for more than just entertainment, employing it as a tool for brand and product discovery. And just as consumers are using Roblox to decide what they should buy, brands have begun using the platform to decide what they should sell.
   
   Two years ago Forever 21 pioneered Roblox-based research and development through a drop of black beanies bearing the word ‘Forever’ (pictured above). The drop was so successful— selling out 1.5 million digital units— that Forever 21 made the decision to recreate the beanie IRL to great fanfare. In a similar vein, last summer Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty turned to Roblox to research shades for their Gloss Bomb product line, asking users to create, and then vote for, their favourite user generated lipgloss, which was then produced and sold at Sephora.
   
   The next 12 months will see this method of game-generated demand prediction move from the exception to the rule. With predictive AI tools, like those discussed above, increasingly deployed to scrape user data and advise creators what to produce.
   
   

3. Designers will seek out new paths to sales and discovery
   
   In March of this year e-comm giant Matches went into administration, forcing many of the ~600 brands stocked on its platform to frantically fight for survival. With millions of dollars of stock tied up in the site, the British Fashion Council claimed the closure left some members owing £50,000 - £250,000 in debt. With brands like The Vampire’s Wife closing just weeks after the administration.

   

   A digital fashion focused slide from the RDC keynote presentation

   In an equally crippling vein, last week Meta announced it would be shutting down its Meta Spark AR program, leaving some 600,000 augmented reality (AR) creators without the infrastructure to create, share, or sell their work. Seen by some as Meta stranding them without their livelihoods, the most shocking element of the announcement is that all existing AR work will be removed from Meta owned platforms (Instagram, Facebook, Messenger etc.) as of January 2025. With the 141,000+ member creator community closed on the day AR creation tools are wiped.
   
   In both the cases of Matches and Meta one question looms: where do creators turn when their trust has been betrayed by market leaders?
   
   I predict that the next 12 months will see immense user acquisition opportunities for platforms which allow creators to feel secure in the ownership of their work. So long as they can offer mass-exposure.
   
   Looking to both Meta and Matches it's likely that surviving creators will first default to the most obvious alternatives: AR builders to TikTok’s Effect House or Snap’s Lens Studio, and physical designers to Moda Operandi, Net-A-Porter, SSENSE and MyTheresa. However, where their trust in incumbents has been so badly broken, they’ll be seeking out other avenues long-term.
   
   As I wrote in my piece When Big Tech Betrays You Where Do You Turn? the next 12 months will see many digital creators optimising for independent AR applications and open source tools. With physical designers building out self-sufficient storefronts with tools like Shopify, while they wait for new opportunities.
   
   Following announcements at RDC, I could see a world where both physical and digital designers start to go-all in on Roblox. Despite its standing as a big-tech player, Roblox is far more creator centric than its alternatives. As of December the platform saw ~5 million creators earning a combined $741 million USD on the platform. And since the recent announcement of a Shopify integration, which will allow consumers to click through and buy physical goods on site, it seems like a promising place for both digital and physical designers to sell work. 
   
   

4. AI will be staked by consumer sentiment and legislation
   
   When a tree is young it’s common to ‘stake it’ by tying a piece of wood to the trunk to guide growth.
   
   I predict that the next 12 months will see AI staked. With regulation and consumer sentiment driving the direction and speed of technological development. Particularly in fashion.

   

   Campaign imagery for the Colina Strada x Baggu collection

   Since the explosion of ChatGPT and MidJourney in 2022, well-intentioned innovators have flung AI into our lives with abandon. But while fashion insiders may jovially invite AI to ‘roast their Instagrams’, and automate away boring tasks, when it looks like AI is stealing jobs, or undermining creative practices they fight back with force.
   
   Earlier this year, Colina Strada followed in the footsteps of Heliot Emil, and Norma Khamali by incorporating AI into their designs. As part of a collaboration with eco-friendly bag-maker Baggu, the brand released a series of bags, towels and even a tent, featuring two AI generated prints.
   
   Whilst AI was not obviously marketed in the drop, after one suspicious Reddit user fed photos of the offensive prints into an AI detection tool, and received a 86.4% confirmation they were indeed 'machine-made', the community went into uproar. Some users spewed vitriol around a lack of transparency, others against a lack of creativity, and still more claimed that AI was antithetical to Baggu’s eco-friendly ethos.
   
   Lev’is weathered a similar storm in 2023, after the internet took its decision to use AI to diversify its models as ‘lazy’, ‘problematic’ and ‘racist’. Though the brand released a statement declaring their move was not a ‘substitute for the real action that must be taken to deliver on our diversity, equity and inclusion goals’, a cursory Reddit scroll shows that the slip is still souring consumer sentiment.
   
   The cases of Colina Strada and Levi’s have undoubtedly served as scapegoats for the wider fashion industry to learn where AI is appropriate in the eyes of their audience. Whilst 73% of industry execs say generative AI is a key priority for their businesses this year, its likely that in fashion’s immediate future, AI will be kept behind the scenes—guard-railed by consumer sentiment and growing legal requirements around copyright law, routine testing, and cybersecurity.
   
   

5. Most first-wave digital fashion companies will consolidate or close
   
   When I wrote about digital fashion’s false start earlier this year, I explained how our industry had been betrayed by the belief that the rest of the world was just as excited about digital clothes as we were. When in reality most were just in it for the cash.

   

   Crunchbase graph illustrating Metaverse, AR and VR funding 2018-2023

   In cash’s respect, 2020-2022 saw an abundance of money flying at our work— with $5.73bn USD invested in metaverse, AR and VR companies in 2021, and 5.74bn USD in 2022.
   
   Just twelve months after this peak we’ve seen metaverse, AR and VR funding drop almost 3x. With NFT sales near-nought and innovation-based layoffs at the likes of Burberry and Tommy Hilfiger, driving struggles to raise capital, even for those with solid traction.
   
   Most first wave innovators raised funding during digital fashion’s peak years, with plans to sustain themselves with a 12-24 month runway. So unless you’re holding a hefty treasury, have successfully completed an AI pivot, or work predominantly in games, its likely you’re increasingly strapped for cash.
   
   I predict that the next 12 months will see consolidations and closures that leave a small spattering of digital fashion leaders the industry can rally around.
   
   Whilst this reality can seem terrifying to those who have put their lives into pushing digital fashion forward, in reality this time-worn stage of the innovation curve is a necessity.
   
   As parallel industries have shown, consolidation will result in the surviving businesses benefitting from the top-tier talent, resource pool, and consumer base needed for long term growth.
   
   Plus, for those displaced in the reshuffle, lucrative opportunities working with, and for, these players will crop up, as we see a new injection of sustainability into our now-turbulent market.
   
   So while the next 12 months will see short-term discomfort, in the long term digital fashion will stronger, better and wiser as we fix our fractures.
   
   But wait, we’re not done.
   
   In classic September Issue style this is an exorbitantly long essay. You’ll find part.2 in your inboxes early next week.
   
   To be continued…